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The ruble is being prepared for stress sample 2014

Рубль готовят к стрессу образца 2014 года

World oil prices on Wednesday slightly started to grow after falling sharply the day before, when the price of Brent crude on the London stock exchange fell below 62 dollars per barrel. At this level the last time it was trading at in mid-February.

One evening, a reference brand of oil (Brent and WTI) fell by more than seven percent. As at 21.25 GMT. January futures barrel Brent was estimated in the accounting period 61.92 dollar WTI in 52,89 dollar.

Environment environment morning quotes began to grow but to regain the lost interest has not turned out.

In the beginning of October the price of Brent crude fell by 28%, WTI — by 30%.

The decrease in the quotes they reacted the President of the United States Donald trump. «Oil prices go down, great! Enjoy! $ 54 (WTI — ed.) and it was $ 82. Thank you Saudi Arabia, but let’s reduce them even!», — he wrote on his page on Twitter.

The recent decline in world oil prices happened exactly a week ago — and also 7%. One of the reasons for the «decline» of experts was then called the temporary suspension of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

In particular, as explained by the leading analyst of the national energy security Fund Igor Yushkov, «production is growing, and so there is a surplus of supply in the market and oil will be greater than it is consumed. Given this situation, the traders also began to sell futures, so the oil is cheaper».

But the fact that the weight of the ruble is largely determined by the price of black gold. The national currency the day before it began to fall against the dollar and the Euro.

And if confirmed the fears of the traders regarding the repetition of the scenario of 2014, when oil prices in November and December fell by 33% — about what Bloomberg said, — what will happen to the ruble?

Do not repeat «black Tuesday» — December 16, 2014, when the Euro in exchange soared to 100 rubles, dollar — 80, and people rushed to buy all imported household appliances, which is still sold at the old rate.

The exact figure of the ruble to predict now useless — commented independent financial expert Anton Shabanov. But some direct, I would say, the correlations with 2014 not to do. Still, the macroeconomic indicators of our economy looks more stable than four years ago.

That is why even in all the fluctuations in the price of oil that we have seen in the last month or two — and this is, roughly speaking, twenty-five percent, in my opinion, the ruble reacted much less fall. That is, the stability of the Russian economy in large numbers today quite serious.

«SP»: — But if the oil collapse continues, as still will the market react?

— Of course, the ruble will take their positions. Because oil is very important for us asset and to write him off will not work in any way. But to say that it will be in some kind of direct correlation is one to one, I can’t. Even about to say what «override», it is very difficult, because everything else will depend very much, including from the sanctions and the pressure of geopolitics.

To predict a hundred percent now some specific number, it’s like that on a crystal ball guess. And then I think the probability will be higher than to speculate on the ruble exchange rate.

«SP»: — the Question is again whether the excitement that happened in December 2014, when the ruble fell by almost half against the dollar, and across the country lined up in long queues in exchange?

— If we take into account only what is happening with oil. But if, again, to oil, including, and added sanctions pressure and some external shocks, such flash may be.

But purely because of oil prices, which fall now does not work because too many members are trying to put pressure on the market from different sides, this, I think, will not happen.

I would generally advise people just not to respond to the volatility (variability — ed.) — she always was and will be in the markets. And she never will be like in 2017.

2017 is the year was quite calm and we are relaxed when the markets are fairly steadily. But suddenly there appeared the most normal volatility, which has always been in the markets.

There is no meaning to the second person to respond to any market movements. If you have a goal and, especially, to the long-term, you need to follow it. Don’t waste time on tracking of the financial market, which has always been and will be volatile.

Economic analyst Dmitry Demidov also does not see special reason to fear for the ruble:

— In principle, the ruble is a little bit of oil got rid. But rid of him just because he was not allowed to rise, when oil was expensive. Fall yet it can be somewhere up to 55 USD per barrel, and that’s when the current exchange rate will be more or less balanced.

So I do not think that the financial crisis of the end of 2014 will repeat-the situation now is different. And the reasons for the fall in the price of oil and other, mostly some speculation associated with some short-term things.

And, I think, will remain approximately in its current borders — somewhere in the 66-67 per dollar. We have enough for this year closed in terms of capital movement and international trade — it inevitably happened because of the sanctions. And we have, by and large, the Central Bank fully controls the situation. As I understand it, he wants the course at this level to leave.

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