Since November, Russia will stop supplies to Belarus gasoline, diesel and fuel oil, restriction will be valid until the end of next year. As explained in the Ministry of energy, duty-free exports of oil products to Belarus impractical — the Republic fully satisfies its needs in petroleum products by processing Russian oil. But the excess Minsk to anything: ally supplies to neighbouring Ukraine, earning billions of dollars. Observers note: the volume of re-exports has reached such proportions that Moscow can no longer turn a blind eye.
In the Russian Ministry of energy explained: the supply of certain petroleum products that are not produced in Belarus, will continue. Restrictions are not affected and the oil trade: in 2019 in Moscow will be sent to the neighboring country of 24 million tons, the same as last year.
As for gasoline, diesel and fuel oil in the indicative balance provided zero indicators.
For seven months of current year has imported 2.3 million tons of oil products from Russia worth more than $ 900 million. It is obvious that the real need of the Republic in petroleum products is much lower. For comparison, five years ago, imports of Russian oil products did not exceed 90 thousand tons.
All that Belarus is not used itself actively re-exported — the main volume went to Ukraine.
The termination of deliveries of oil, oil products and gas in excess of the amounts required Belarus for its own consumption, was discussed for a long time. Now the decision is made, and the calculation is simple: the new agreements exclude the possibility of «grey» schemes of deliveries of oil products in the framework of the Union state, leading to a shortfall of Federal budget revenues and Russia.
The Belarusians did not agree. In August, the President of the Republic Alexander Lukashenko in interview to TV channel «Belarus 1» said: the accusations that Belarusian companies buy petroleum products in Russia, processed in Belarus and then sell on the foreign market, he does not understand. The head of state pointed to the fact that the practice is not new. And dark oil products, he said, is a refinery waste that are not implemented in Russia, the processing of which Belarus «earns a penny.»
This, however, isn’t really about cents. In recent years, the volume of such supplies has grown exponentially. Belarusian economists have calculated on the re-export of Russian oil Belarus earned up to five percent of its GDP.
The expert suggests that the channel is blocked while in test mode, but if the Belarusians will present a convincing case that they need more of our energy resources for the economy, perhaps the restrictions will reconsider.
«This is a sensible preventative measure, we don’t want to help another government to the detriment of themselves. Ukrainians can buy the oil somewhere else if you don’t want to buy from Russia directly. The fact that we are losing a substantial amount of money has become too noticeable to ignore this is uncomfortable,» adds independent analyst Dmitry Demidov.
The upcoming ban on the export of petroleum products promises to be for the Ukrainian market of pesticides and other agrochemical products are very sensitive. According to some reports, Ukraine was closed up to 40% of their fuel demand at the expense of Russian oil that Belarus re-exported. Benefits to Kiev are obvious: profitable logistics with practically direct deliveries and good prices.
Economists do not exclude that drop down to replace Belarusian supplies will try some of the nearest competitors, such as Kazakhstan. Another option is neighbors in Europe.
«Ukraine buys gas alternative in Europe at a price of ten to fifteen percent higher than the Russian, the same thing will happen with oil,» — says Alexey Gromov.